Dentsu Group Announces “Global Advertising Expenditure Growth Rate Forecast (2023-2026)” – Dentsu Group Inc.

– Global advertising spending growth rate predicted to be 4.6% in 2024, with significant growth expected in the Americas –

Dentsu Group (Brand: “dentsu'', Head Office: Dentsu Group Inc., Base: Minato-ku, Tokyo, Representative: Hiroshi Igarashi, Representative Executive Officer, President and CEO) has announced the “Global Advertising'' based on data collected from 58 markets around the world. We have compiled a forecast of cost growth rate. This forecast is basically conducted twice a year, and this time we updated the forecasts for 2023, 2024, and 2025, and made a new forecast for 2026. The main results are:

● The global advertising spending growth rate in 2023 is predicted to be 2.7%, with a market size of 100 trillion yen^*Go beyond

The advertising spending growth rate forecast for 2023 is expected to be 2.7%, a downward revision of 0.6 points from the June forecast (3.3%), due to factors such as a decline in consumer activity due to the uncertain economic situation. However, the market size is expected to exceed 100 trillion yen (approximately 106 trillion yen) for the first time due to market growth and the impact of exchange rates, and digital advertising will continue to grow, with the proportion of total global advertising spending decreasing. It is expected to reach a record high of 57.7%.

● Global advertising spending growth rate is predicted to be 4.6% in 2024

The global advertising spending growth rate in 2024 is predicted to be 4.6%, and the market size is expected to be 752.8 billion US dollars (approximately 111 trillion yen). This is because multiple major sporting events and national elections scheduled to be held in many countries are expected to create many advertising opportunities for our clients. Additionally, media price inflation is expected to contribute. By region, all regions will see positive growth, and in particular, the Americas (combined North America and Latin America), which includes the United States, which is the world's largest market, is expected to rank first in terms of advertising spending growth rate in 2024.

● Steady growth is predicted in 2025 and 2026, with the proportion of digital advertising expected to exceed 60% for the first time in 2026

The global advertising market is expected to continue to grow steadily in 2025 and 2026, increasing by 4.2% to USD 784.6 billion and by 4.3% to USD 818.4 billion, respectively. Furthermore, the proportion of digital advertising in total advertising expenditure is expected to reach the 60% level for the first time, reaching 59.9% in 2025 and 61.1% in 2026.

Note: After the forecast announced in July 2022, future forecasts and past data are calculated excluding Russian market values.

■ About the global advertising market in 2024

The forecast for market growth in 2024 is due to increased advertising opportunities due to major sporting events such as the UEFA European Football Championship and the Olympic and Paralympic Games to be held in Paris, as well as national elections to be held in many countries, including the US presidential election. This is because media price inflation is expected to continue.
By medium, digital advertising expenditures are expected to maintain a high growth rate of 6.5% in 2024, and the proportion of digital advertising expenditures in total global advertising expenditures is expected to reach 58.8%. Growth will be driven by retail media (+20.8%), display advertising (+6.9%), including social media and digital, and paid exploration advertising (+7.0%).
TV advertising will grow by -4.0% in 2023, but is expected to return to positive growth from 2024 onwards. The growth rate in 2024 is predicted to be 2.9%, with connected TV (+30.8%) expected to grow particularly strongly. Newspapers and magazines, which continue to show a downward trend, are expected to decline by 3.3%. OOH (outdoor/transit), cinema, and audio are expected to grow by 4.4%, 6.4%, and 1.1%, respectively.

■ Regarding Japanese advertising market trends in 2024

Japan is the third largest advertising market in the world, and is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2024, which is a 0.7 point downward revision from the previous forecast (3.2%) announced in May 2023.
Digital advertising accounted for 45.8% of total advertising expenditure, and was mainly driven by search advertising, video advertising, and social media advertising. Television advertising accounts for 23.5% of total advertising expenditures, and is expected to gradually recover from 2024 onwards. Additionally, OOH has recovered from the impact of the new coronavirus infection, and is expected to continue expanding due to the contribution of new formats such as 3D and large digital OOH.
Japan's advertising market will continue to grow, and is expected to grow by 3.6% in 2025.

[Summary of global advertising expenditure growth rate forecast]

The global advertising spending growth forecast has been created by collecting data from 58 markets around the world and incorporating expert knowledge in each market by mid-October 2023. Target media include digital, television, newspapers/magazines, OOH (outdoor/traffic), audio, and cinema.
Advertising costs are provided in local currencies, net of negotiated discounts and agency commissions, and global and regional figures are converted to US dollars at average October 2023 exchange rates.
These forecasts are generally published twice a year, and all actual values ​​and the latest forecast values ​​are revised based on constant exchange rates.

The detailed report can be downloaded from the URL below. (English only)
URL:https://insight.dentsu.com/ad-spend-dec-2023/

*Converted at 1 US dollar = approximately 147 yen.

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[Inquiries regarding release]
Dentsu Group Inc. Group Corporate Communication Office Kojima, Sawada
Email:group-cc@dentsu-group.com