[Japan C/Pedigree trend]Expected “10 popularity” around tailwind Matches favorable conditions of 100% betting ticket | SPREAD

It will be held at the Tokyo Racecourse on the 27th.Japan Cup(GI, turf 2400m)pedigree tendency” will be analyzed.

Aiming for a comeback from last year’s Japanese Derby horse, which finished 5th in the previous race, Emperor’s Award, and autumnShahryarEmperor’s Award, 3rd place in Autumn, and a 3-year-old horse who showed a strong presence against older horses.danone belugawinner of the Kyoto Grand PrixVera AzulLast year’s Oaks winner ・uberlebenA splendid team gathered for a race that can be said to be the pinnacle of Japanese horse racing both in name and reality.

Here, we introduce recommended horses for the Japan Cup based on pedigree data.

◆[Japan Cup 2022 Prediction / Data Capture]Facts in the “10th consecutive year” betting ticket

■ American pedigree shines on the stage of the Japan Cup

The data is for the Japan Cup since 2017. The pedigree of the 3rd place horse is as follows.

If you look at the chart, there are only races that decide the champion of Japanese horse racing such as Heart’s Cry, Road Kanaloa, and Deep Impact, and stallions of mainstream Japanese bloodlines are active. Last year Contrail and Shahryar, sons of Deep Impact, both finished 1st and 3rd, respectively. This trend has not changed over the past three years, and all 9 runners have finished 3rd since 2019. 7 of the heads are made up of the aforementioned 3 mainstream stallions, and I want to keep an eye on it.

Also, looking at the mother and father, American bloodlines such as Unbridled’s Song[2.1.1.0]Scat Daddy[0.1.0.1]Machiavellian[1.0.0.2]and Essence of Dubai[0.0.1.0]have achieved good results. It seems like a trend.

Conversely, the dullest is the Northern Dancer stallion. Cumulative results over the past five years have been devastating at[0.0.0.15]and it is important to keep in mind that Satono Crown, who was the 3rd favorite in 2017, lost to 10th place, and that even popular horses have performed poorly.

The reason why horses with American descent in their maternal line are able to run well is because of the setting of the Japan Cup. The quality of the race is different from that of the Japanese Derby and the Oaks, which are held at the Tokyo Shiba 2400m and attract 3-year-olds with little long-distance experience. In the Japanese Derby and Oaks, where 3-year-old horses with little long-distance experience gather, it is easy for horses that are good at slow-paced, explosive power to run well, but in the Japan Cup, where older horses with aptitude for distance compete, there is no slack in the middle. The “sustained type”, which is prone to severe currents and has a long-breathing tail leg, tends to emerge. That’s why it fits.

This time, we would like to pick up two Sunday horses whose mothers and fathers are of American descent as recommended horses.

◆[Japan Cup 2022 Predictions/Dangerous Popular Horses]GI horses that are expected to revive are “erased” “There are many “smell” ingredients for comebacks…”

The first one is Heart’s Cry’s son and has Tizway with 2 US dirt GI wins such as Metropolitan H wins for his mother and father.danone belugais. Against high-level 3-year-olds such as Equinox, who won this year’s Emperor’s Award and Autumn, and Seriphos, who won Mile CS, he ran well, finishing 4th in both the Satsuki Sho and the Japan Derby. He showed his high ability once again by pulling out the last leg of 32 seconds 8 even in the fall of the previous race, which was the first run since the Derby, and catching up to the third place just before the goal.

Also, from 2012 onwards, when a colt with a father Sunday and a mother Matchem races in the top 5 of their previous race and finishes in the top 5 in their last race and finishes in Tokyo Shiba[4.4.3.6]the winning rate is 23.5%, the top two rate is 47.1%, and the double win rate is 4.4.3.6. 64.7%, 188 wins and 188 points, which is a high average and can be expected from Renji. Among them, when focusing on October to February[3.2.2.4]the win rate is 27.3%, the top match rate is 45.5%, the multiple win rate is 63.6%, and the multiple win recovery value is 192. This cold season is good. In the Emperor’s Trophy Autumn, he left behind old horses such as Jacquedor and Shahryar from behind, and his high ground strength has been proven. .

◆[Japan Cup 2022 Forecast / Data Strategy]Top 2 rate over 80%, overthrowing GI horses “Unparalleled strength in international races”

The second is Captain Steve, who is also a product of Heart’s Cry and whose mother and father won 4 dirt GI wins such as Don H and Dubai World C wins.heart twist whirlI want to pay attention to In the previous run, the Argentine Republic Cup, he lost to a breakup and finished second, but there was a disadvantage due to King of Dragon, who contacted Uchirachi at the entrance of the straight line. In addition, he boasts outstanding stability with[3.6.0.1]running a total of 10 races on the Tokyo course.

Furthermore, since 2014, a colt with a father Sunday x mother and father Captain Steve has a very high winning rate of 29.4%, top-to-top rate of 47.1%, multiple-win rate of 58.8%, and single-win recovery value of 187 when running on turf 2400m since 2014. It boasts a winning rate and a recovery rate, especially if the previous race was within the top 5 and was a Japanese jockey[5.2.1.0]the winning rate was 62.5%, the top two rate was 87.5%, the double win rate was 100%, and the winning rate was 397. Although there are few samples, horses with this pedigree are of the type that tend to be better suited to gentle jockeys like Japanese jockeys. right.