[Japan Derby / Popularity Trend]”2nd most popular” in the betting ticket for 4 consecutive years Only 3 of the most popular crowns | SPREAD

Keiichi Obata

The 89th held at Tokyo Racecourse on the 29thJapan DerbyIntroducing the data of (GI, turf 2400m).

This year, the top horses of the Satsuki Sho are the main ones. 5th most popularGeoglyphTokyo Sports Hai Nisai S, 2nd place since SEquinoxAsahi Hai Futurity S champion and 3rd placeDo DeuceWinning the Tokinominoru Cup and finishing 4thDanon BelugaWill run.From the Keisei Stakes win to the 6th Satsuki ShoOnyankoponHopeful S wins and loses 13th placeKiller abilityAnd so on.

Here, from the data of the past 10 years, it will be a hint of prediction “Popularity trendWill be analyzed.

◆[Japan Derby (Tokyo Yushun) 2022 Forecast / Previous Rote]Satsuki Sho group with 7 wins in the past 10 years Equinox and Danon Beluga win

■ Winning horses appear from the 1st to 3rd popularity

Last 10 years,Most popularIs[3-2-2-3]with a win rate of 30.0%, a consecutive win rate of 50.0%, and a double win rate of 70.0%. Surprisingly, there were only three winners, two of the three were double-crowned horses: Contrail in 2020, Duramente in 2015, and Kizuna in 2013.

Rather, it is[3-3-1-3]that surpasses the most popular with a quinella rate of 60.0%.3rd most popular.. Although it sank outside the betting ticket for the last two years, Danon Kingly in 2019 is the third most popular second place. Deep Brillante won the 3rd most popular in 2012, and has a track record of being within 3rd place for 6 consecutive years, including One And Only who won the 14th year and Makahiki who won the 16th year, up to Suave Richard who won the 2nd place in 2017. ..

Second most popularHas a lower betting ticket rate than[1-2-1-6]and the 1st and 3rd popularity. However, in the five years from the second Satono Diamond in 2016 to the second Salios two years ago, there is momentum that four times are within three.

5th most popularBelow, there is no victory other than the 12th most popular Roger Burrows in 2019 and the 5th most popular Wagnerian in 2018, and the winning horses are from the 1st to 4th most popular.

Be wary of the unpopular run, last year the 9th most popular Stella Veloce came in 3rd, the 10th most popular Vertrisende came in 3rd in 2020, and the 12th most popular Roger Burrows won in 2019. Is the 16th most popular Cosmic Force in 3rd place. A large hole is entwined in the betting ticket almost every year.

◆[Japan Derby (Tokyo Yushun) 2022 Forecast / Leg Quality Tendency]Derby position is “2nd-5th” Satsuki Sho High-ranking group has full confidence

◆[Video Playback / Japan Derby (Tokyo Yushun) 2021]Shahryar wins over the undefeated Satsuki Sho horse Efforia

◆[Oaks (Yushun Himba) 2022 Forecast / Data Strategy-Part 2]“Popularity drop” in the Oka Sho defeat.

Sentence / SPREAD editorial department

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